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With nine goals in his first seven Premier League games, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has started the season with incredible momentum.

Although this isn't his most impressive beginning to a campaign - he scored 11 goals in his first seven games in the 2022-23 season and double digits last year - it nonetheless positions him three goals ahead in the early running for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

What makes this none of his nine goals have been penalties makes it even more impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Certainly, fitness issues could potentially disrupt in the eventual Golden Boot winner, but there are two reasons why Haaland is so heavily favored for the honor so early in the season.

First, the number of goals he has already scored - and, equally significant, the total and standard of chances he is getting.

Secondly, the modest opening his regular challengers for the prize have made.

xG Statistical Breakdown

A footballer's xG statistic (xG) indicates how many goals a top-flight footballer has traditionally converted from the number and quality of scoring situations he's encountered.

It is not a figure arbitrarily chosen by statistical experts, but by Premier League history.

When examining at attackers' xG statistics in the Premier League so far this season from open play, the Norwegian striker is receiving significantly more good opportunities to convert than anyone else.

Actually, even if Haaland didn't excel at converting opportunities than any other player in the competition, he would nevertheless have converted more than twice as many goals as all other players.

Opportunity Analysis

This is illustrated by breaking down the quantity and caliber of opportunities that attackers have encountered in the top flight so far.

Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this term, a dozen more than any other player.

This is actually not especially surprising for him - he had actually taken more non-penalty shots at this juncture in the last two seasons (30 in last season and 34 in the previous term).

However, what's remarkable even by his standards is the caliber of opportunities he has had this campaign. His shots have had an expected goals rating of 0.27 per attempt.

This statistic indicates is that attackers have typically netted the shots he has had at a 27 percent conversion rate.

Among footballers attempting at least 10 shots, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had simpler scoring situations to score on average - thanks to a several close-range conversions against West Ham United and Brighton.

The Norwegian's expected goals of 0.27 is much higher than the 0.17 expected goals per shot he had at the start of last season.

In short, the opportunities he has had in the current season have been notably easier to convert from in a realigned Citizens squad than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Previous Season Assessment

Starting a season so powerfully is, as noted earlier, not uncommon for Haaland. Post seven fixtures last season he had scored 10 goals - four more than every other footballer and six more than Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Anfield star who secured the scoring title with 29 goals, seven additional compared to the City forward.

During the current term, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has registered half as many goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

In fact this has been the least productive beginning to a Premier League term the Egypt forward has made.

Challengers' Quiet Beginning

It is not just Salah who has begun modestly either. If we look at the eleven leading goalscorers in the English top division last campaign, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the other 10 players collectively so far.

Whether due to fitness issues - several key attackers - protracted transfer stories in Alexander Isak's case or merely because their sides have underperformed (several proven attackers), Haaland's likely rivals in the contest for the top scorer award have underperformed so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

Although the Norwegian appears the obvious frontrunner for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the European top scorer prize that is given to the player with the most goals in Europe's premier competitions?

That contest is far more competitive at this opening period because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have similarly opened in excellent condition, with 11 and 9 conversions correspondingly.

The reality Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the top chance quality metric of the three without having taken any spot-kicks positions him as the likely winner.

Yet given that the English and French stars are two of the best converters in European soccer in terms of outperforming their chance quality metrics, the battle continues intensely.